Last minute conversion: Paul Manly is right, and is the best strategic vote

My last post on this blog got a little attention, where I thought a coin toss was the best solution to the hellish strategic voting conundrum in Nanaimo Ladysmith. I still stand by a lot of that post, especially the craziness of having 2 outstanding progressive candidates in a single riding. And, as opposed to how I see those excellent candidates, I remain very skeptical about both the Greens and the NDP as they have evolved in 2025.

But I finally had a chance to look at Manly and his communications since he decided to run. Back before he decided to run here is the OraclePol from before and after Carney entered the race, all this having been included in an email from the Manly campaign April 4, 2025: 

And here's the latest OraclePol just last Thursday April 23-24 as posted on the Manly campaign FaceBook page: 

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1076517664294911&set=a.355419049738113

https://www.facebook.com/ElectPaulManly

Kudos t6 Paul Manly and team for drawing attention to the gritty details and giving us voters credit for the intelligence to read and digest the messy details of polling. Also for discussing the nature and limitations of the popular 338 projections. 

I looked carefully at what I knew from information I absorbed plus Paul Manley's original rationale for jumping into the race. His narrative that he jumped into the race, because he was best positioned to strategically win the riding is plausible. Also, his acknowledgment that first past dash the post sucks but we're stuck with it this cycle, echoes my own sentiments. Starting, back in February when the conservatives were very dominant, according to the poll, (and I'd be interested in any insightful criticisms in the comments below about this poll), by the smaller Ontario firm that does telephone polling, OraclePoll,  the Greens are the most consistent over multiple polls over time as the strongest rival to the conservatives.  And I'm still frustrated and angry at the conundrum that we've been put in. Again, strategic voting is a crapshoot that can easily backfire, but I think it's the best shot we progressives have at having a voice right now. 

I sort of wish I had spent time this past week looking at this rather than attending three political meetings, but they were very enlightening in addition and I highly recommend all candidates meetings in future. What was interesting was unexpected things about the candidates life experience and viewpoints, not expected because they didn't particularly fit their parties in some ways. That came through, that a number of the candidates could have been running for any of the progressive parties or the Liberals. 

Personally I still would be happy with any of the 3 as my representative including the Liberal Michelle, though Lisa Marie and Paul are way the closest to my own progressive position.  We also need an ongoing education campaign to alert voters, especially young ones that this is a parliamentary election, not a presidential election, in spite of how the media focus on the leaders, I think that may be because of what they see as their career path. Unfortunately, I wonder if some in the media cover it as if it's a presidential election because they hope to soon "move up" to a US channel and cover American elections like Peter Jennings did.

In conclusion, at this point, I think Paul Manly analyzed the situation most accurately, and is currently the best position to converge the progressive vote on, in this horrible split.

Breaking: I just became aware of this via a local Facebook group: Poliwave, another election projector like 338 has a 9 day old projection for Nanaimo Ladysmith as follows: 

New Democratic Party

33.6%

CPC

Conservative Party

33.0%

LPC

Liberal Party

17.7%

GPC

Green Party

14.2%

It's not swaying me for a few reasons, but I am again way less certain and more uneasy about how to vote. It is inconsistent both with the much more recent 338 projection and the actual April 23-24 poll by telephone of 800 voters. from OraclePoll. The cool thing is this week, either 338 or Poliwave will have some 'splainin' to do about why they were wrong. Regardless, I feel good to go and vote and for having engaged in various political fora like this and in person even more so! 

Vote, get out in the street and engage with others in the coming crucial years.