First-past-the-post hell in Nanaimo Ladysmith, sick of fingers crossed COIN TOSS 2025

CANCELLED! Diana Krall Plaza, High Noon, Thursday, Apr.24, 2025

Too little response across social media for the to work. But let me know what you think of this as a hypothetical for future elections. 

Everybody, please vote for gosh sakes! And if you already voted good on you! None of the following is meant to discourage voting. By the way, IGNORE the % chance of winning projections from 338. As someone who worked closely and co-published with statisticians in social research for decades, I say these percentages are BS and are meant to wrongly inflate the credibility of polls and projections. I think such projections gave false and damaging overconfidence of winning to the campaigns of Hillary Clinton, the Brexit opponents and Kamala Harris. 

We are in first-past-the-post hell in Nanaimo Ladysmith. But it's not time to talk about electoral reform. It's time to talk about the vote on April 28th in Nanaimo LadySmith. 

We have two terrific progressive candidates. This should never happen. Terrific progressive candidates are rare enough that they should be put in different ridings to overturn conservatives if possible! Not competing to maximize their chance in an easy riding. There is so much blame to go around, how Paul Manly ended up out of the NDP, how the NDP did a last minute negative postcard that almost got the Conservative elected such that we didn't know for a week who won between the Conservative and the NDP last election, and how the strong candidate with high recognition, Paul Manly jumped back into the race this time, putting the riding into jeopardy for progressives. This past week, a heroic effort by the Greens moved Manly to, at one point, within 1% of the conservatives, according to the 338 projection based on multiple polls and other factors, but of course the NDP and conservatives pushed back, so that now, 5 days before voting day, as advanced polls wound up yesterday, Paul is stuck at 26% with the Conservative, Tamara inching back up to 32%,  while the NDP candidate Lisa Marie bounced back up to 20%, and the Liberal, Michelle falling to the offensive by the other parties, down by 3 points to 21%, (338 projection, Apr. 23, 2025) and one of the most progressive ridings in the country will probably have conservative member representing us, with 30% of the vote, with close to 70% of the population strongly against the PP federal Conservatives.

Agreed Manly and the Greens are statistically best positioned right now to challenge the Conservative leading candidate. But do they have something more up their sleeves that would give them a decent chance of turning it around in the last few days, to overcome the deeply felt personal and party loyalties keeping the votes split? Last election, Paul Manly was ahead by close to 10 points the week before the election. If everybody keeps fighting hard for their candidate, the result will be a 

Conservative win in Nanaimo Ladysmith. Absent some powerful last-minute Green convergence by progressive voters, I suggest the following:

I'm proposing a COIN FLIP, Thursday, April 24, at Diana Krall square, at high noon,  between  the historic front runners in our riding:  NDP, Lisa Marie, and the Green, Paul, loser withdraws and ask supporters to vote for the other, loser and winner combine to publicize the decision so people on the actual election date don't vote for the one who has withdrawn. It doesn't matter if Paul is three points or 30 points behind the conservative or which of the two very progressive candidates is most progressive, if the Conservative wins. This would be realistically and relatively fairly dealing with the hell of first-past-the-post. It's not pretty, but to me it's better than holding our breath and seeing what happens.

Please, if you agree, comment below, forward it to others in the riding, and ask them to forward it.  Let me know what you think, on social media with a like or a dislike, by email by replying or commenting. If it doesn't get enough traction, such as less than a thousand likes or forwards, forget it, and we're back to praying and hoping, fingers crossed the Conservative doesn't win.

If not enough people respond, then no coin flip because it could backfire. But I absolutely will vote,  probably for Paul if the trends stay the same. It's not a time to sit on the sidelines.